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FINANCE AND ECONOMY

Evaluation of the effect of agricultural credits granted to Micro and Small rural producers

This study marks the beginning of joint investigative activities between the two centers linked to the study of the UPB economy: CIEE and CEGIE. Impact assessment is a modern and very dynamic area of ​​study, whose rapid development is linked to the need of governments, international organizations, NGOs and private institutions to know the effects of their different policies, programs, initiatives and strategies.

The different impact evaluation methodologies can be classified into three main groups: experimental, quasi-experimental and non-experimental evaluations.

The methodologies that belong to the first two groups are based on the existence of control groups, ideally isolated from the policy, program or strategy to be evaluated, unlike intervention groups. The determination of both groups responds to a very rigorous analytical and statistical selection technique and must be carried out before applying the intervention to be evaluated. The comparison of these groups is also the object of rigorous econometric techniques that seek to determine the degree of causality of the intervention in the differences registered between both groups.


 

This type of experimental design for impact evaluation has proven to be very rigorous and successful under various conditions; techniques to be carried out correctly are becoming more sophisticated, robust and precise. However, many situations do not lend themselves to an evaluation with these characteristics for at least two reasons. On the one hand, some policies or programs, mainly governmental, cannot give rise to the determination of a control group (it is not possible, for example, to apply a fiscal policy or regulation on an experimental basis). On the other hand, many programs, policies and strategies are already in the process of being implemented or have already been implemented without having designed an experiment for their evaluation, that is, without having built a control group. Under these conditions, the evaluation should be carried out through non-experimental evaluations, more intensive in the use of quantitative information at the individual level and microsimulation techniques and construction of counterfactual scenarios.

Thus, the CIEE and the CEGIE seek to initiate, with this project, a joint line of research in impact assessment, based on topics in which they have extensive experience: microfinance and rural economy. This project will investigate the conditions and limitations of a non-experimental evaluation of the effect of agricultural credits on the productive level and productivity of a restricted group of rural entrepreneurs, in some municipalities of Santa Cruz, thanks to the approach of the research centers with an IFD with extensive experience and a successful track record.

Director:

Ricardo Nogales C., PhDc (CIEE)
Contact: rnogales@upb.edu

Researchers:
Pamela Córdova, MSc.(CIEE)
Carlos Foronda, MSc. (GEGIE)
Mauricio Chumacero, MSc. (CEGIE)