ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
International economic crisis and Bolivia
International economic crisis and Bolivia: growth, inflation and household consumption
Under an approach in which the international context plays a central role, the figures for growth, inflation and household consumption during the crisis are studied in detail; For the study of the last two variables, the analysis of prices by decomposition into components is used and, in addition, an almost linear system of food demand for Bolivia is estimated econometrically. It is shown that the crisis came when the Bolivian economy was about to enter into crisis, that the extraordinary performance of the economy in terms of growth is due to a fact that is also extraordinary rather than structural, that low inflation is the result of international disinflation caused by the crisis and the commitment of the Central Bank of Bolivia for price stability in the domestic market.
It also shows that price stability has largely favored the consumer, although there are differences in the way lower-income sectors and higher-income sectors are favored. One conclusion is that, to the extent that the crisis is behind and given the size of the Bolivian economy, it is necessary to resume the long-term vision and direct efforts to achieve competitiveness in international markets, the way in which the exchange rate it is only a propitiating factor, so that growth also prioritizes exports in addition to consumption.
Published in Research & Development, No 9, 2009, pp. 5 - 26
Responsible:
Ernesto Cupé, MSc.
Researchers:
Ernesto Cupé, MSc.
