TERMS OF TRADE AND NON TRADITIONAL EXPORTS: A MICROECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Ruth Marcela Aparicio

Resumen


Since 2004 some economies in Latin America, including Bolivia, have experienced an improvement in their terms of trade.  In this research we investigate the causal effect of this improvement on nontraditional exports. We focus on before and after the increase in terms of trade and analyze how this improvement affects export performance. To identify this causal effect we rely on dynamic analysis and we use four different microeconometric techniques: Difference in differences, Kernel propensity score matching, difference in differences combined with propensity score matching, and synthetic control method.  Each one of these  improves estimation of  the counterfactual outcome. Thus, this paper reviews the theory of these  impact evaluation methodologies and also analyzes the way in which the theory has developed toward a more systematic  methodology to construct the counterfactual. Our estimation results show that nontraditional exports would have increased if these countries had not had improvements in their terms of trade.

Palabras clave


Improvement in Terms of Trade, Nontraditional Exports, Difference in Differences, Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences, Synthetic Control Method, Latin American Countries

Texto completo:

ABSTRACT RESUMEN FULL ARTICLE

Referencias


A. Abadie and J. Gardeazabal. “The Economic Costs of Confict: A Case Study of the Basque Country.” The American Economic Review, vol. 93, no. 1, pp113-132, 2003.

A. Abadie et al. “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tabacco Control Program.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 105, no. 490, pp 493-505, 2010.

A. Abadie. Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate an International Strategic Positioning Program in Uruguay: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects. Draft. 2011.

O. Blanchard. Macroeconomía. Primera Edición. España: Prentice Hall, 1997.

BID. Curso de Evaluacion de Impacto de Proyectos. Ministerio de Economîa de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina. 21 y 22 de abril de 2010.

A. Billmeier and T. Nannicini. Trade Openness and Growth: Pursuing Empirical Glasnost. Middle East and Central Asia Department. IMF Working Paper, vol. 7­­­, no. 156, 2007.

R. Blundell and M. Costa Dias. “Evaluation Methods for Non-Experimental Data.” Fiscal Studies, vol. 21, no. 4, pp 427-468, 2000.

R. Blundell and M. Costa Dias. Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

M. Bruno and J. Sachs. “Energy and Resource Allocation: A dynamic model of the Dutch Disease.” Review of Economic Studies XLIX, pp.845-859, 1982.

W. Buiter and D. Purtvis. “Oil, Desinflation and Export Competitiveness. A model of the Dutch Disease.” National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper 592,1980.

M. Caliendo and S. Kopeinig. Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching. Discussion papers Series. Forschungs Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Institute for the Study of Labor, 2005.

C. Cameron and P. Trivedi. Microeconometrics Using Stata. Texas: Stata Press, 2009.

C. Cameron and P. Trivedi. Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications, 1st ed., New York: Cambridge University Press,

D. Card and A. Krueger. “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.” American Economic Review, vol. 84, pp 772-93, 1994.

M. Corden. “Booming Sector and Dutch Desease economics: survey and consolidation.” Oxford Economic Paper, vol. 36, no. 3, pp 356, 1982.

M. Corden and P. Neary. “Booming Sector and De-Industrialization in a Small Open Economy.” The Economic Journal, vol. 92, no. 368, pp. 825-848, 1982.

S. Edward and M. Aoki. “Oil export boom and Dutch disease: A dynamic analysis.” Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 5, pp 219-242, 1983.

K. Enders and H. Herberg. “The Dutch Disease: Causes, Consequences, Cures and Calmatives.” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Bd. 119 H.3, pp 473-497, 1983.

F. Giavazzi and G. Tabellini. "Economic and Political Liberalizations." NBER Working Papers Series. Working Paper 10657, 2004.

S. Girma et al. “Export market exit and performance dynamics: a causality analysis of matched firms.” Economics letters, vol. 80, pp 181-187, 2003.

J. Hainmueller and A. Diamond. Package Synth. Software, htm. Harvard University, 2013.

J. Heckman et al. “Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator.” Review of Economic Studies, vol. 65, pp. 261-294, 1998.

P. Krugman. “The narrow moving ban, the dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs.Thatcher. Notes on Trade in the Presence of Dynamic Scale Economies.” Journal of Development Economics, vol. 27, pp.41-55, 1987.

S. Khandker et al. Handbook on impact evaluation:Quantitative methods and practices. Washington: World Bank, 2010.

N. Magud and S. Sosa. “When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link between Dutch Disease and Growth.” IMF Working Paper, vol. 10, no. 271, 2010.

B. D. Meyer. “Natural and quasi-experiments in economics.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 151, 1995.

M. Slaughter. “International Trade and Per Capita Income Convergence: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis.” NBER. Working Papers Series. Working Paper 6457, 1998.

N. Pavcnik. “Trade liberalization, exit and productivity improvements: Evidence from Chilean plants.” NBER. Working Papers Series. Working Paper 7852, 2000.

A. Peluffo. “Apertura Comercial, productividad, empleo y salarios: Un Analisis de Diferencia en Diferencias.” Universidad de la Republica, Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y de Administracion, Instituto de Economia, Uruguay, 2012.

D. Rubin. “Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.” Journal of Educational Psychology, vol. 66, no. 5, pp. 688-701, 1974.

P. Rosenbaum and D. Rubin. The central rol of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 44-55, 1983.

R. Valdez. Managing abundance to avoid a bust in Latin America. Western Hemisphere Department. International Monetary Fund, 2011.

J. Villa. “Simplifying the estimation of Difference in Differences treatment effects with Stata.” Brooks World Poverty Institute, University of Manchester, 2012.

S. Wijnbergen. “The Dutch disease: A disease after all?.” The Economic Journal, vol. 94, no. 373, pp 41-55, 1984.


Enlaces refback

  • No hay ningún enlace refback.


ESTADÍSTICAS DEL ARTICULO
Resumen : 218
ARCHIVO PDF ABSTRACT : 54
ARCHIVO PDF RESUMEN : 35
ARCHIVO PDF FULL ARTICLE : 99



Copyright (c) 2018 Revista Investigación & Desarrollo

Licencia de Creative Commons
Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional.